The situation is more concerning than it appears.

Half of the population is unaware that in today’s complex world, decisions can no longer be made by a single scholar, as was the case 50 years ago, exemplified by the Marshall Plan.

Modern global problems are too intricate for one person to address. The number of variables involved has grown significantly compared to the two primary factors in most economic analyses, such as interest rates and growth.

Solutions should not begin with defining variables but with strategic analysis, identifying key players, and understanding their motivations and alliances.

Many plans fail because crucial stakeholders are overlooked.

The 2008 financial crisis began when an economist declared on Bloomberg Channel that all banks were bankrupt, a criminal act.

To worsen the situation, he claimed the FDIC – Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation was bankrupt as well.

Yet, there is no mention of Nouriel Roubini’s initial role in the literature on the crisis.

Think tank proposals often revolve around allocating more funds, although this is not always the solution.

Many proposals neglect to address the underlying issues and implementation strategies.

This is because most think tanks consult economists, rather than professionals with MBAs.

The world needs multidisciplinary, non-partisan, evidence-based scholars who can effectively communicate and develop appropriate solutions.

However, this is not the current reality.

No public policy recommendation includes a marketing plan, implementation plan, review plan, or stop-loss scenario.

When to recognize failure is essential in public policy, and that has to be discussed in the beginning and not when the policy is not doing well.

Even after explaining the concept of think tanks, we must convince the public of their necessity.

Stephen Kanitz

O post No One Knows What Think Tanks Are apareceu primeiro em Thinkers Brasil.

The sector still does not have a joint lobbying structure to emphasize the importance of its spending, nor do we have a consolidated image among the population about what we do.

What is the discussion around the Spending Cap?

One of the mantras in administration is never to spend more than revenues. Technically, this is impossible due to lack of resources.

The only way to spend more than the revenues is for the Treasury to issue more Public Debt.

Opponents of “piercing the spending cap” argue that this is overburdening future generations and, worse, reducing the spending cap of future elected governments.

Mandates are only 4 years, overburdening a future government is disrespectful of the democratic pact. Taking out a debt to be paid in the same mandate is valid, not in the next.

Do more with less

Economists in general do not follow these precepts, so much so that “deficit financing” is a very debated topic in economic sciences, and most of the time, favorably.

The United States is currently discussing the same issue, only their rule is to establish a Public Debt Ceiling, a measure used by most countries.

In August 2022, the headline of Correio Brasiliense reads “Government studies setting a limit for debt instead of spending ceiling”.

One thing is certain. The probability of the government incorporating new public policy is much lower than before.

The government’s emphasis in the next 8 years will be how to maintain current public policies, but at a lower cost.

Opportunity for researchers:

Studies on spending ceilings will be very welcome.

Another opportunity for Think Tanks is to provide studies analyzing the cost-benefit of current public policies, known as “ex-post evaluations”.

There is a vast literature on the subject, but the beautiful work done by the Jones dos Santos Neves Institute stands out.

Acesse the  GUIDE FOR EVALUATING PUBLIC POLICIES PDF  (5,62MB) – Guide to guide and assist in the preparation of monitoring processes. Monitoring of public policy from indicators, bringing information on its performance.

What emphasizes another possibility for the coming years: focusing on state public policies, especially in states that are not facing problems of spending limitation.

These states can take advantage of the opportunity to implement efficient and innovative public policies, using the “moment” to show what is possible to achieve.

Think Tanks can help in this task by generating evidence, designing and monitoring efficient and innovative public policies.

The role of Think Tanks will be more important than ever, as they will be responsible for helping the government seize the moment and develop efficient and innovative public policies that ensure the well-being and prosperity of future generations.

Stephen Kanitz

O post How to Circumvent the Spending Cap and Implement Public Policies apareceu primeiro em Thinkers Brasil.