Since 2008, the University of Pennsylvania has cataloged the 6,500 Think Tanks in the world, including Brazil.

As expected, they were not able to capture all the Brazilian Think Tanks, and we are in contact to supply the missing Think Tanks.

As a result of this work, we collected dozens of other data from Think Tanks, which will allow us to carry out several studies.

The most transparent and governed is one of them.

It is not customary to demand transparency and governance from Think Tanks, but these attributes are important for any Think Tank that intends to raise funds from individuals and foundations.

One of the biggest fears of Think Tank donors is not whether or not their research will have an impact, but rather being misled by Think Tank fraud or embezzlement.

Having governance and transparency mechanisms solve this problem.

The Think Tanks listed are those that have fulfilled the list of requirements listed in that link.

The following received the Gold Seal: CLP-Public Security Center, FBSP, IDESAM, IEPS, Imaflora, IPÊ, Instituto Península, Itaú Social and Transparência Brasil.

Those who met most of the requirements, but not all, received the Silver Seal: EMBRAPA, ENAP, FDC, IBGE, IPAM and IPEA.

Not all Think Tanks need to be transparent because they are part of Universities or because they are automatically funded by a public body.

But our opinion is that transparency is already a value demanded by society, and honestly it doesn’t require much effort or great costs to implement.

Stephen Kanitz

O post The Most Transparent and Governed Brazilian Think Tanks apareceu primeiro em Thinkers Brasil.

It describes the underlying assumptions, pathways and mechanisms by which an initiative or program is expected to lead to specific outcomes and impacts.

By setting long-term goals and working backwards to identify preconditions, activities and progress indicators, “Theory of Change” helps stakeholders clarify their vision, establish a shared understanding of the change process, and measure the effectiveness of your efforts.

There is no single book that encapsulates the “Theory of Change”, as it is an approach that has evolved over time and has been used and adapted in many fields, including international development, public policy and organizational management.

However, some key texts and scholars contributed to the development and popularization of the “Theory of Change”:

1- Carol Weiss: Weiss is a prominent evaluation scholar who introduced the concept of “theory-based assessment” in her 1995 article “Nothing as Practical as a Good Theory: Exploring Theory-Based Assessment for Comprehensive Community Initiatives for Children and Families”.This concept laid the groundwork for the development of the “Theory of Change” approach.

2- “A Guide to Developing a Theory of Change,” by ActKnowledge and Aspen Institute Roundtable on Community Change (2004):This guide offers a hands-on introduction to “Theory of Change”, providing step-by-step instructions for creating a Theory of Change, along with examples and templates.

3- “Making Theories of Change Work: Outcomes-Based Approaches in Public Agencies” by John Mayne (2015):This article discusses how “Theories of Change” can be applied to public sector organizations to improve program design and evaluation.

4- “Unpacking Your Theory of Change:A Guide to Building Impact,” by New Philanthropy Capital – NPC (2019): This guide offers practical advice for creating a “Theory of Change” as well as tips for engaging stakeholders, reviewing progress, and learning from the process.

These resources, along with others, contribute to a growing body of literature on “Theory of Change”, providing practitioners with guidance and information for applying this approach to a variety of contexts and initiatives.

Stephen Kanitz

O post A Methodology for Think Tanks, Theory of Change apareceu primeiro em Thinkers Brasil.

The situation is more concerning than it appears.

Half of the population is unaware that in today’s complex world, decisions can no longer be made by a single scholar, as was the case 50 years ago, exemplified by the Marshall Plan.

Modern global problems are too intricate for one person to address. The number of variables involved has grown significantly compared to the two primary factors in most economic analyses, such as interest rates and growth.

Solutions should not begin with defining variables but with strategic analysis, identifying key players, and understanding their motivations and alliances.

Many plans fail because crucial stakeholders are overlooked.

The 2008 financial crisis began when an economist declared on Bloomberg Channel that all banks were bankrupt, a criminal act.

To worsen the situation, he claimed the FDIC – Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation was bankrupt as well.

Yet, there is no mention of Nouriel Roubini’s initial role in the literature on the crisis.

Think tank proposals often revolve around allocating more funds, although this is not always the solution.

Many proposals neglect to address the underlying issues and implementation strategies.

This is because most think tanks consult economists, rather than professionals with MBAs.

The world needs multidisciplinary, non-partisan, evidence-based scholars who can effectively communicate and develop appropriate solutions.

However, this is not the current reality.

No public policy recommendation includes a marketing plan, implementation plan, review plan, or stop-loss scenario.

When to recognize failure is essential in public policy, and that has to be discussed in the beginning and not when the policy is not doing well.

Even after explaining the concept of think tanks, we must convince the public of their necessity.

Stephen Kanitz

O post No One Knows What Think Tanks Are apareceu primeiro em Thinkers Brasil.

The sector still does not have a joint lobbying structure to emphasize the importance of its spending, nor do we have a consolidated image among the population about what we do.

What is the discussion around the Spending Cap?

One of the mantras in administration is never to spend more than revenues. Technically, this is impossible due to lack of resources.

The only way to spend more than the revenues is for the Treasury to issue more Public Debt.

Opponents of “piercing the spending cap” argue that this is overburdening future generations and, worse, reducing the spending cap of future elected governments.

Mandates are only 4 years, overburdening a future government is disrespectful of the democratic pact. Taking out a debt to be paid in the same mandate is valid, not in the next.

Do more with less

Economists in general do not follow these precepts, so much so that “deficit financing” is a very debated topic in economic sciences, and most of the time, favorably.

The United States is currently discussing the same issue, only their rule is to establish a Public Debt Ceiling, a measure used by most countries.

In August 2022, the headline of Correio Brasiliense reads “Government studies setting a limit for debt instead of spending ceiling”.

One thing is certain. The probability of the government incorporating new public policy is much lower than before.

The government’s emphasis in the next 8 years will be how to maintain current public policies, but at a lower cost.

Opportunity for researchers:

Studies on spending ceilings will be very welcome.

Another opportunity for Think Tanks is to provide studies analyzing the cost-benefit of current public policies, known as “ex-post evaluations”.

There is a vast literature on the subject, but the beautiful work done by the Jones dos Santos Neves Institute stands out.

Acesse the  GUIDE FOR EVALUATING PUBLIC POLICIES PDF  (5,62MB) – Guide to guide and assist in the preparation of monitoring processes. Monitoring of public policy from indicators, bringing information on its performance.

What emphasizes another possibility for the coming years: focusing on state public policies, especially in states that are not facing problems of spending limitation.

These states can take advantage of the opportunity to implement efficient and innovative public policies, using the “moment” to show what is possible to achieve.

Think Tanks can help in this task by generating evidence, designing and monitoring efficient and innovative public policies.

The role of Think Tanks will be more important than ever, as they will be responsible for helping the government seize the moment and develop efficient and innovative public policies that ensure the well-being and prosperity of future generations.

Stephen Kanitz

O post How to Circumvent the Spending Cap and Implement Public Policies apareceu primeiro em Thinkers Brasil.

In this transition, administrators gain status and family heirs lose social status as they are removed from power.

Harvard University, progressive that it is, saw this transition in 1908, and realized that there was a possibility of silently “taking over” capitalism.

They created the Harvard Business School, already offering Post-Graduation, alongside Law, Medicine and Theology, with a lot of resistance.

The idea was to oblige future administrators to have a humanistic education in graduation, and to teach socially responsible administration in post-graduation.

It is in this context that American philanthropy emerges, a way for the heirs of these companies to keep themselves busy and retain their social status.

Over the next 10 years, $45 trillion will be donated in the form of bequests to the next generation worldwide, such is the size of the future market for philanthropy.

That is, there is a new space to be explored by Think Tanks, not the usual donors, but new donors who need to be sought out and convinced for the cause of social research.

Follow the Thinkers-Brasil social networks to be part of this community.

Stephen Kanitz

O post Wealthy Families Losing Social Status apareceu primeiro em Thinkers Brasil.

Editorial Stephen Kanitz

Brazil currently has so many problems that one of the issues that Think Tanks could solve is to show which problems we should start solving as a priority.

One of the characteristics of the Brazilian government is the tendency to let our problems pile up, one after the other.

Decision making is not something taught in our universities, with the exception of the Business Administration course.

We have no sense of urgency, we ask for more data and studies instead of solving the issues, and with that, the problems keep piling up.

Managers and engineers use the term “the best is the greatest enemy of the good” more often, while economists and sociologists tend to be perfectionists and look for perfect solutions, not accepting good alternatives.

Today we certainly have 2,000 unsolved problems, divided into 50 major areas, including health, education, population decline, in short.

And then we fall into two traps.

Usually the most recent problems become our priorities, not the most serious problems.

To stay on a single example, we discussed the spending ceiling rather than the size of current spending.

Another mistake we make is wanting to solve 12 problems at once, what we call reforms. Tax Reform, Administrative Reform, etc.

If we are not capable of solving one problem at a time, much less will we solve 12 with a Reform.

The third mistake is to select problems that are on the surface, in plain view, or those that affect us today.

Most of our current problems are the result of the 7,000 accumulated problems of the past.

Problem number 7000 is actually just a sequel to problem 2700, which has not been resolved. And that, in turn, is a consequence of problem number 45, back in the distant past.

Think Tanks need to consider this characteristic, and discuss our hierarchy of problems among themselves, unraveling this skein and dividing the reconstruction work among themselves.

There is no doubt that tackling problems unresolved in the past is a complex task. In reality, what you are doing is trying to solve 20 problems at the same time, not just 1.

My humble opinion is that problems 1, 2, and 3 are the most urgent for Think Tanks to address.

I have my candidates, and I propose that we create a joint seminar to discuss what issues from the past still affect us today.

And for you, what should be addressed with priority?

Stephen Kanitz

O post Think Tanks: Where to Start apareceu primeiro em Thinkers Brasil.

The biggest owners of Americanas, including Jorge Paulo Lemann, are known as philanthropists, each one contributing resources to the third sector via their foundations.

Today, Lemann and his two partners, Marcel Telles and Carlos Alberto Sicupira, are in the newspapers every day, somewhat tarnishing the reputation of these NGOs, since their money can have dubious origins.

NGOs are concerned about the origin of philanthropic resources, and in the coming months we will have many discussions on the subject.

Some business people know that they’ve screwed up, that not all taxes have been paid, and that some lifelong partners have actually been harmed.

Many of these entrepreneurs create philanthropic foundations with the argument of “giving back to society” part of their earnings. And no one need feel guilty about helping them fulfill their purpose.

The usual criticism that private sector entrepreneurs will only finance projects that make a profit is not supported by the evidence.

Usually companies make genuine donations to help the community to which the company belongs.

If your Think Tank received a donation or endowment from a company or entrepreneur that appears unfavorably in the media, the right thing to do is defend yourself and not hide the endowment.

State that your Think Tank or NGO did receive a grant, inform the amount, and add that the resource was used to research or help solve a certain problem consistent with the mission and principles followed by your institution. And present the results obtained, when possible.

If you want, even thank you.

That’s why we at Thinkers insist that Think Tanks clearly disclose their Mission, Values, and Charter of Principles, to show that none of them has been violated.

Stephen Kanitz

O post How to Get Out of Donors Involved in Financial Fraud apareceu primeiro em Thinkers Brasil.

Editorial Stephen Kanitz

We live in a unique moment to show Brazilian society that we, the Think Tanks, are the appropriate sphere to discuss public policies.

Evidence-based policies, with scientific rigor, and a non-partisan vision.

Think Tanks now have a big challenge to face:

1. Show society that our mission is precisely to criticize public policies for their shortcomings and propose solutions

2. Always based on evidence

3. Always listening to all sides involved

4. Always making it clear that we are non-partisan

Here we face some problems.

The function of a Think Tank is not clear to the majority of the population and politicians.

Many Think Tanks do not develop their own evidence, or are not well known enough.

Others don’t bother to be non-partisan, which we know reduces their credibility and audience.

Conclusion.

Criticism of public policies is necessary in a democracy, which increases our responsibility as centers of research and knowledge production.

The time to show the importance of our sector is now.

It is time to propose credible public policies, no matter how critical we are.

O post Think Tanks and the Freedom to Criticize apareceu primeiro em Thinkers Brasil.

How to improve income distribution?

Below is the list of responses. No less than ten proposals, and in three seconds.

1- Progressive taxation: Implementing a progressive tax system, where those with higher incomes pay a larger percentage of their income in taxes, can help redistribute wealth and reduce income inequality.

2- Increasing social transfers: Increasing social transfers, such as pensions, child benefits and unemployment benefits, can help reduce poverty and income inequality.

3- Investing in public goods and services: Investing in public goods and services, such as education, healthcare, and affordable housing, can help improve the well-being of low-income individuals and families.

4- Encourage unionization: Encouraging unionization can help ensure that workers have a collective voice in the workplace and can negotiate higher wages and better working conditions.

5- Encourage job creation: Encourage job creation in high-paying sectors, especially in rural areas and other low-income regions, through public-private partnerships and other initiatives.

6- Promote economic development: Promote economic development in low-income areas through infrastructure investments, tax incentives and other strategies to attract businesses and create jobs.

7- Financial Inclusion: Encouraging financial inclusion by providing affordable banking and credit services to low-income individuals to help them build assets and improve their economic stability.

8- Reducing Discrimination: Reducing discrimination in the workplace and housing market can help ensure that all individuals have an equal opportunity to succeed and improve their economic mobility.

9-Regulate the real estate market: Regulate the real estate market to ensure there is an adequate supply of affordable housing, which can help reduce poverty and income inequality.

10- Encourage Savings and Investment: Encourage savings and investment by providing incentives for low-income individuals to save and invest in assets such as stocks and real estate.

Without a doubt, the first step in any new research will be to consult OpenAI.com. Do you agree?

Stephen Kanitz

(Imagem gerada por Night Café Studio – Inteligência artificial em 22/12/2022)

O post Technology Solutions to Improve Income Distribution apareceu primeiro em Thinkers Brasil.

ChatGPT was created by OpenAI, a company founded by Elon Musk, Sam Altman and other investors.

The algorithm answers questions asked of it, and we came up with this one:

“What questions should we ask when interviewing Think Tanks directors?”

This is precisely what thinkers-brasil.org has been doing this past year, based on a series of our questions.

See what ChatGPT replied:

1- What is the think tank’s mission and focus?
2- How does the think tank generate and disseminate its research and ideas?
3- Can you discuss some of the think tank’s most significant achievements or impacts?
4-How is the think tank funded and what is its organizational structure?
5- How does the think tank work with policymakers and other stakeholders to implement its ideas?
6- How does the think tank guarantee the independence and objectivity of its research?
7- Can you discuss any current or future research initiatives or projects?
8- How does the think tank keep up with and adapt to changes in the political landscape?
9- How does the think tank involve experts and scholars from different fields and perspectives in its research and analysis?
10- How does the think tank measure its impact and effectiveness?

Absolutely incredible! Google only compares the words you type, and returns sites that contain the same words, no more than that.

The OpenAI.com Artificial Intelligence tool understands what you asked, and presents a very extensive list of answers.

We incorporated two questions suggested by ChatGPT into our questionnaire.

If you have a question, send it to thinkers-brasil.org at stephen@thinkers-brasil.org and we will send you the answer.

Next week I’ll illustrate how OpenAI can help Think Tanks with their research.

Stephen Kanitz

(Image generated by Night Café Studio – Artificial intelligence on 12/22/2022)

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